What are the future energy consumption estimates?

Jaroslav Kores, Ph.D.

(Source: stock.adobe.com)

Because these are estimates, several different scenarios can be found and they are quite different. In principle, I believe we can expect energy consumption to increase, particularly due to the rise in energy consumption in developing countries (Africa, Asia), where industry will be developing. According to an EIA study, it is estimated that there will be an increase in energy consumption of approximately 50%. (International Energy Outlook Consumption; by 2050, global energy use in the Reference case increases by nearly 50% compared to 2020—mostly as a result of non-OECD economic growth and population, particularly in Asia - The Energy Information Administration (EIA)). Conversely, there is an effort to mitigate the environmental impact of energy production which can be achieved both by reducing consumption and by reducing the use of non-renewable resources, particularly the burning of hydrocarbons. A study by the IEA (but only for 38 developed countries) estimates that energy consumption will need to be reduced to meet climate goals.

From both of these values, it is clear that the future of energy consumption is difficult to predict and will depend primarily on our ability to build "clean" energy sources in developing countries. Additionally, it will depend on new technologies and their energy needs. It's interesting to note that, for example, cryptocurrencies, cloud storage, and the operation of artificial intelligence consume more energy annually than the consumption of, for example, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy combined. And in the areas of AI and data centers, consumption is expected to roughly double by 2030.

Although developed countries are trying to increase energy consumption efficiency and thus reduce their consumption, consumption is growing due to new technologies. So, to answer the question, I would say that energy consumption is still growing, and how much it grows will depend mainly on how quickly energy demands increase in developing countries. To be able to at least mitigate the environmental impact of electricity production, we should utilize renewable sources as much as possible, nuclear energy, or invest significantly more in nuclear fusion.

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